After global turbulence rocked markets, cautious optimism for 2024

Twenty-twenty-three was a turbulent year for many reasons, some of which could not possibly be anticipated. The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to wreak havoc, while the shocking incursion of Hamas into Israel and devastating response by Israeli forces into Gaza has the world lined up on ever more polarised lines.

Economically, the Russian invasion of Ukraine highlighted the over reliance of the western world on Russian gas. However, an interesting energy outcome has been the realisation that Ireland can be a leader, or at least a self-provider, using renewables. In fact, the conversion of renewable energy from solar into domestic energy is something our climate is very good at.

Forget the blistering weather in southern Europe, once temperatures go past 25 degrees, then the efficiency of solar drops off. By contrast, Ireland’s temperate climate combined with long daylight hours during summer make it a great place to engage solar.

Morgan Pierce is a serial entrepreneur who has built multi-million-dollar businesses by identifying gaps in the marketplace and finding solutions. This ability does more than look at trends but the issues behind trends and how they might be solved – which is the definition of an entrepreneur.

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Back in the 1980s and while still living in her native US, Pierce played a pivotal role in providing technical services to the burgeoning computer industry. Fast forward to the noughties and now residing in her naturalised country, she is one of an army of solar companies looking to fast track Irish households into becoming self-sufficient on electricity.

Pierce who cofounded SolarSmart feels that 2023 was a good year for renewables as the Irish Government continued to offer renewable grant programmes and in particular removed the VAT on domestic solar.

“That gave a great boost to families wanting to reduce their energy costs,” she says.

Pierce says that solar was called the gateway drug for renewables at the 10th annual conference for the Irish Solar Energy Association: “It makes sense, energy production and usage are controlled via an app and people can determine when is the best time to use the energy. It’s an active decision and people have the opportunity to create energy at the point of consumption.”

I think the big focus going into next year will be on managing costs, and labour is a massive one that’s going to be impacting everyone in [hospitality]

—  Eveyln Moynihan, chief executive of Kilkenny Group

Ireland Inc has a goal to have a million domestic installations by 2030 which will reduce our reliance on outside fuels.

Coming out of Covid, Ireland’s job vacancies peaked. It was definitely an employees’ market back in 2021 according to Adrian McGuinness, chairman of Sigmar Recruitment.

But then in 2023, the funding slowed up, population was up, and unemployment was low. The slowdown was very noticeable in tech and many companies let go staff, citing over hiring during Covid.

“Companies in the pharmaceutical space had been on an upward trajectory for years but these have slowed down. It might be a blip or a right sizing but companies are back in the driving seat when it comes to hiring again,” says McGuinness.

With regards to investing, this right sizing has impacted companies, with valuations coming right down.

“If companies are prepared to give away more equity, then funding should be available, but it’s a harder sell,” he says.

McGuinness is still optimistic about 2024. Ireland punches above its weight when it comes to FDI and is very stable compared to other EU states.

“I don’t think anyone is worried about unemployment as we have gone up the proverbial value chain. Perhaps the big salary increases won’t happen and inflation is still an issue, but I am relatively optimistic about the coming year,” he says.

Eveyln Moynihan, chief executive of Kilkenny Group and Champion Green, feels despite the rising cost issues generally, that consumer confidence increased last year.

“Speaking as CEO of the Kilkenny Group, our sales returned to 2019 levels and that was combined with increased tourism. US visitors were back and some of our locations recorded their highest ever revenue.

“We’ve 250 Irish designers and makers in our business that make a big difference.

“I think the big focus going into next year will be on managing costs, and labour is a massive one that’s going to be impacting everyone in our sector. Kilkenny Is behind the Champion Green initiative and we are asking Irish customers to support Irish producers – for every euro that circulates in the local economy it returns €2.50. So, we reckon the long term outlook is positive,” says Moynihan.

Things change and sometimes not for the better, so you’d be on your guard

—  John Lowe, the Money Doctor

John Lowe, also known as the Money Doctor, is more cautious.

“Some could say ‘we got away with it’ but the horrors of 2023 seemed to have bypassed the island of Ireland. Inflation seemed out of control and the only tool any government has to curb the ever-increasing rises – the interest rate – was liberally used by the European Central Bank – a total of 10 rises in 14 months.

“However, it worked to a degree and along with record decreasing unemployment figures there were many commentators happy with our state of the nation.”

Lowe’s note of caution is focused on what lies around the corner. The world is changing he says, and anarchy is always on the march.

“Geert Wilders was elected to the most popular party in the Netherlands, the Ukraine war looks like stalemate and Hamas seems still in control. Dublin is not ‘out of the woods’ either with recent riots emanating from the horrific stabbings of young children. There is an undercurrent of youthful anti-conformism, with young people looking for a purpose in life.”

Where will it all end? Financial markets, interest rates and the price of gold are all affected.

“Don’t be complacent,” says Lowe. “Things change and sometimes not for the better, so you’d be on your guard.”