Polish far-right populists hold the key to deadlocked general election

Copernicus remains stoic on his central Warsaw plinth as blasts of dry ice and Polish blues-rock waft up from a rally of Konfederacja (Confederation), the party to watch on Sunday in Poland’s general election.

The young party’s political programme reads like an Elon Musk-Andrew Tate team effort, blending libertarian demands for low taxes and minimum welfare state with anti-abortion and nationalist anti-EU rhetoric.

The crowd, a homogenous demographic of hoodied young men aged between 20 and 40, have sidled up for warm-up speeches with anti-vax claims or complaints about the victimisation of motorists.

It’s well after 9pm and getting cold when, as one, the young men raise their smartphones to film the arrival of Konfederacja’s 36-year-old entrepreneur leader, Slawomir Mentzen.

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For supporters he is a saviour in a corrupt political landscape, for critics he is a populist wrecking ball. Though Konfederacja’s support in polls is down from summer highs of nearly 17 per cent to about 10 per cent now, that is still enough to secure a blocking parliamentary minority of 30-40 seats.

Final polls suggest the ruling national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, hoping for a record third term, is as unlikely to secure an absolute majority as an opposition coalition alliance lead by Civic Platform (PO) leader, Donald Tusk.

[ The Irish Times view on the Polish election: a key moment for the country and the EU ]

Mentzen describes his mandate as ending a grudge match between Kaczynski and Tusk – combined age, 140 – that has hijacked Polish politics for 20 years.

“We will shake the foundations of the entrenched PO-PiS duopoly, paving the way to construct a new bold political landscape based on a radically altered power dynamic,” says Mentzen in a staccato delivery that delights his audience here – and the 700,000 followers of his daily TikTok posts.

After one term in parliament, and on the campaign trail, Konfederacja has palpably altered the political landscape in this country of 38 million. It has attacked PiS on its generous welfare spending and a series of sleaze scandals, the latest a cash-for-visas affair. A visibly nervous PiS still leads polls, but a likely loss of up to 15 seats has seen it mimic Konfederacja’s mercantile foreign policy: blocking Ukrainian grain imports westward while halting Polish weapons exports eastward.

Another copycat, Mentzen complains to his Warsaw audience, is Tusk, whom he says has lifted Konfederacja’s simplified tax proposals. His young audience love it, previously sullen expressions replaced with smiles and gleaming eyes.

“Mentzen speaks the truth, he is the only one, I don’t think any of the other parties actually stand for anything,” says Kamil, a 37-year Warsaw man. “I think most Poles are libertarians, they don’t really care what others do once it doesn’t bother them.”

In final campaign rallies, Mentzen has repeated that Konfederacja is not open to co-operation with PiS, vowing instead to consolidate its support still further with fresh elections in the spring.

That risky strategy has created cautious hope in the Tusk camp. A final poll on Friday gave his Civic Coalition alliance 150 seats, well short of a 231-seat majority. Tusk’s only hope at returning to power, after a one-term run a decade ago, is a three-way deal with the Left and the Third Way, a moderate self-styled alternative alliance to the big two political blocs.

So far Third Way leader Szymon Hołownia, a former television presenter, has been more vague than the Left on co-operating with Tusk.

“Any government we join will not be a government of national revenge but of national hope,” said Hołownia, a nod to years of divisive politics and violent rhetoric that has seen Kaczynski and Tusk each describe the other as “evil”.

With Poland at a crossroads, analysts say a third PiS term would push to breaking point its fractious relationship with the EU.

While Brussels withholds billions of euro in funding until Warsaw rolls back controversial judicial reforms, Kaczynski frames his party as the last bulwark against “modern serfdom” for Poland in an EU he describes as a “Fourth German Reich”.

“There is a plan in the EU to deprive nation states of all powers,” he said at a recent Krakow rally, “and projects being presented in the EU that, if implemented, would eliminate Polish independence”.

But even a Tusk victory would be fraught with political uncertainty and challenges. Women’s groups want an immediate rollback of new restrictions that in effect outlaw abortion, while ongoing inflation worries may make it difficult to honour generous PiS welfare and pension promises.

Tusk and his allies are divided, too, over what to do with PiS loyalists installed in public television, the top courts and public prosecutor offices, and the central bank.

“Overcoming an illiberal system that maintains the pretence of democracy is uncharted territory,” said Piotr Buras, Warsaw office head of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “This election outcome will shape significantly the political future of the continent.”