Pressure builds on all sides to return to Iran nuclear deal

Pressure is building on all sides to return to the 2015 agreement under which Iran limits its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.

The International Atomic Agency (IAEA), which is eager for a breakthrough, has dispatched officials to Tehran to tackle the sole issue of dispute between the agency and Iran. This is the IAEA’s discovery in 2019 of traces of uranium at three undeclared sites.

While eager to recommit to the deal, Iran has said it would not sign the largely agreed EU text until this issue is resolved. Since talks stalled in September, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has remained committed to his mediating mission.

Mr Borrell has said: “In spite of the fact that the nuclear deal remains in a stalemate and the escalation of Iran’s nuclear programme is of great concern, we have to continue engaging as much as possible in trying to revive this deal.”

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This has been complicated by two factors. The first is the brutal crackdown on protests which erupted across Iran in mid-September following the death in morality police custody of Kurdish Iranian Mahsa Amini (22), who was arrested for wearing her hijab “improperly”. The second is the accusation that Iran has provided armed drones to Russia in its war with Ukraine.

The return to the nuclear deal by US president Joe Biden has been made more difficult by his condemnation of Iran’s suppression of unrest and support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict. To no avail, he has placed fresh punitive sanctions on Iran to end repression and deter it from joining the Russian camp.

Lifting sanctions connected with the nuclear deal could ease the economic situation in Iran and meet the demands of Iranian workers whose strikes and demonstrations against high unemployment, low salaries and soaring prices have frightened the regime far more than anti-hijab human rights protesters.

Borrel said: “We have to separate the sanctions on human rights and arms provision to Russia from the nuclear programme, the escalation of which is of great concern.”

After former US president Donald Trump abandoned the nuclear accord in 2018, Iran breached its limits by gradually amassing a large stockpile of enriched uranium and raising the level of purity from the agreed 3.67 per cent to 20 per cent and, recently, 60 per cent. This is a decisive step towards 90 per cent, the grade needed for bombs, although experts say weaponisation could take 18-24 months.

Impetus was recently given to efforts to revive the deal by Saudi foreign minister prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud who warned: “If Iran gets an operational nuclear weapon, all bets are off. We are in a very dangerous space in the region. You can expect that regional states will certainly look towards how they can ensure their own security.”