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Why is Ireland no longer taking immigration in its stride and what does it mean for the next election?

Global polling by Ipsos reveals Ireland is now among the countries most concerned about immigration

Immigration

Immigration has been, on balance, a positive for Ireland according to voters, but the preference is now for a more closed policy. Illustration: Paul Scott

Damian Loscher
Sat Feb 10 2024 - 06:00

Voters are calling for a pause on immigration, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll. Immigration has been, on balance, a positive for Ireland according to voters, but the preference is now for a more closed policy.

Interviewing for today’s poll took place between February 2nd and 6th among a representative sample of the voting population aged 18 years and older – 120 locations were sampled, covering all 39 constituencies, with respondents interviewed in their own homes.

For decades, immigration was not a headline issue in Ireland, remarkably so bearing in mind the very high level of immigration that coincided with the beginning of the Celtic Tiger era. Our own history of emigration was often cited as the explanation for why immigration did not ruffle any feathers.

Taking immigration in its stride used to set Ireland apart from other developed countries that had experienced similar levels of immigration. This is no longer the case. Global polling by Ipsos reveals Ireland is now among the countries most concerned about immigration.

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Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll proves the public’s desire for a more closed immigration policy, with 59 per cent in favour of reducing the numbers coming to Ireland, compared with just 16 per cent preferring a more open policy.

Policy preferences vary across the different population subgroups; however, no single cohort is in favour of a more open policy.

The most eager to see a more restrictive approach to immigration are those living in Connacht/Ulster (70 per cent), those from farming backgrounds (70 per cent), working-class respondents (68 per cent) and the over-65s (66 per cent).

Sinn Féin voters stand out as being the most in favour of limiting immigration, with 72 per cent supporting a more closed policy.

Survey respondents are clearly concerned about accommodating refugees and asylum seekers in their local area. Substantial majorities agree to having concerns regarding housing (82 per cent), how thoroughly refugees and asylum seekers are vetted (80 per cent) and how local health and education services would cope (75 per cent). Opinion was mixed only on the potential impact to the local economy (49 per cent concerned).

Voters were also asked if they would object to accommodating refugees and asylum seekers in their local area. A significant 31 per cent reckoned they would object, although the survey did not probe as to what form this objection would take. Most likely to object would be Sinn Féin voters, at 47 per cent.

Today’s poll also probed attitudes towards encouraging Ukrainians to return home if it was safe to do so. Overall, voters are in favour of the idea (71 per cent), with a relatively small minority against (17 per cent).

Obviously, there is a mood for change throughout the country as regards our policy on immigration. In a year of elections, the possibility that immigration will feature in political messaging and manifestos is strong.

When asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate that voiced concerns about immigration, respondents were somewhat circumspect – 30 per cent answered more likely, 20 per cent less likely and 40 per cent claimed it would make no difference either way.

That 30 per cent of voters would be attracted to a candidate that voiced concerns about immigration will not go unnoticed. After all, 30 per cent is more than a quota in most constituencies.

Most receptive to a candidate who proposes stricter immigration rules would be current Sinn Féin voters (38 per cent) and supporters of smaller parties/Independents (42 per cent).

From a purely political perspective, an ‘immigration control’ platform is by no means a one-way bet. There would be resistance from some quarters to making immigration an election issue – Fine Gael, Green Party and Labour voters are more likely be turned off than turned on by a candidate that voiced concerns about immigration.

Finally, it is important to stress that voters are not against immigration per se. About one in two (48 per cent) believe immigration, all things considered, has been a positive for Ireland, outweighing the approximately one in three (35 per cent) who feel it has been a negative.

Immigration is a complicated question that deserves careful analysis and a measured response.

Damian Loscher is managing director of Ipsos MRBI Ireland

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